Natural History Of Disease

 When evaluating the effectiveness of a drug in a clinical trial, it is important to consider the natural history of the disease. 


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✶N. gonorrhoeae infection

Frontiers | Human Immune Responses and the Natural History of Neisseria gonorrhoeae Infection (frontiersin.org)

✶Huntington disease

Figure 1. [Natural history of Huntington disease...]. - GeneReviews® - NCBI Bookshelf (nih.gov)






The natural history of a disease refers to the course that the disease takes in the absence of any treatment. 

✶Natural History of Disease Timeline:

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 1 - Section 9 (cdc.gov) (CDC  Principles of epidemiology, 2nd ed.)




This includes the progression of the disease, the symptoms that are experienced, and the outcomes that are typically seen. 

Figure 5_2_147978_1_En | Principles of Infectious Disease Epidemiology | SpringerLink






[S]ubclinical disease, extending from the time of exposure to onset of disease symptoms, [includes] the incubation period…and the latency period.

(1) (PDF) Two resource distribution strategies for dynamic mitigation of influenza pandemics (researchgate.net)



The latency period for leukemia to become evident among survivors of the atomic bomb blast in Hiroshima ranged from 2 to 12 years, peaking at 6–7 years.

✶(CDC  Table 1.7)





By understanding the natural history of a disease, researchers can better determine the impact that a treatment is having on the disease, and whether the treatment is having a beneficial effect. 

Application of Disease Etiology and Natural History to Prevention in Primary Health Care: A Discourse | Semantic Scholar

Challenges and opportunities for primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention of Chagas’ disease | Heart (bmj.com)






A cohort study is the best way to identify…natural history of a disease…However, this type of study is less useful for examination of rare events or those that take a long time to develop

✶Comparison of Prospective Natural History Study Designs
Cohort studies: marching towards outcomes - PubMed (nih.gov)



It is important to consider the natural history of a disease when designing a clinical trial, as this can help to ensure that the trial is adequately powered to detect any differences between the treatment and control groups.

How to Use Registries and Natural History Studies in Rare Diseases (premier-research.com)

White Paper: Natural History Studies in Rare Diseases and Genetic Biomarkers - Evidera





Ready for a quiz?

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 1 - Quiz| (cdc.gov)




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